Argentina
Colombia
Dominican Republic
Mexico
Paraguay
Peru
Fertility rates have been reduced from 25 % (Latin America as a whole and Argentina), to 40-50 % in some countries. Such enormous decreases in fertility happening so quickly (less than 20 years) will have profound effects on the future of these populations.
1. As President Menem says, (high) infant and juvenile mortality must be taken into account. They decrease the number of future mothers in the population, and creates the need for a higher number of children per woman to replace each generation (See my "World Demography", p.1-2, Table and commentary). At the same time, the fertility rates continue to decrease. Many (mainly female) sterilizations have been performed in those countries (and others in Latin America). They will be impeding a necessary boost in fertility to counteract decline.
2. Decreasing fertility means a reduction in the proportion of the young in any population. With the reservations already mentioned concerning the validity of figures, let us quote figures concerning Latin America as a whole, and the same countries featured on page 2.
| Countries | c.1975 | c.1980 | c.1985 | 1990 | 1994 | |
| Latin America | 41 | 39 | 38 | 38 | 36 | |
| Argentina | 29 | 30 | 31 | 34 | 30 | |
| Colombia | 42 | 40 | 37 | 36 | 34 | |
| Dominican Republic | 45 | 41 | 38 | 39 | 38 | |
| Mexico | 47 | 44 | 42 | 42 | 38 | |
| Paraguay | 44 | 42 | 41 | 41 | 40 | |
| Peru | 43 | 42 | 40 | 38 | 38 |
This means that these societies are aging. Combined with the welcome increase in life expectancy which comes with the availability of modern medicine --when it is there-- this will create a serious imbalance in the population, leaving a reduced younger generation to care for a bulging aged population. (See my "World Demography" about China, p. 4 and note 8). This is already the biggest problem which Japan now has to face: 17% under 15 years, 14% over 65; Latin America: 36% and 5% respectively (WPDS 1994). Europe is closing in on Japan (20% and 13%, idem).
To conclude: from a demographic point of view, the very future of Latin America is at stake. But countries and their people do not live by demography alone. Far more is implied in the choices which have been already made; the "souls" of Latin American countries will depend on the upcoming choices. Will human societies be organized according to the personal nature of their members? The Universal Declaration of Human Rights is highly relevant where it concerns man, the family, the nation and the community of nations.
Children embody all hope for the future. Without them, life is literally ebbing away.
Father René Bel is a French priest who spent 12 years as a missionary seminary professor in Africa. He is an expert on world demography and on AIDS. He is a collaborator of HLI and of VHI. Presently he lives in France.
Sources: Fertility, in Population Reports (John Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland), Series M, Number 11, Special Topics, December 1992, p. 4. World Population Data Sheets [=WPDS], 1990 to 1994, from the Population Reference Bureau (Washington, D.C. 2005). Telephonic conversation with a representative from the Population Reference Bureau (06.13.1994). Figures have been rounded where necessary. Of course the validity of the figures --hence of the findings - depends heavily on the accuracy of the sources; for Third World countries-- and occasionally also for developed countries-- this is far from evident (See my "World Demography", par. 1 and notes.)
